A Quantile Variant of the EM Algorithm and Its Applications to Parameter Estimation with Interval Data

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the expectation in each E-step and the maximization in each M-step are straightforward. A difficulty with the implementation of the EM algorithm is that each E-step requires the integration of the log-likelihood function in closed form. The explicit integration can be avoided by using what is known as the Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm. The MCEM uses a random sample to estimate the integral at each E-step. However, the problem with the MCEM is that it often converges to the integral quite slowly and the convergence behavior can also be unstable, which causes a computational burden. In this paper, we propose what we refer to as the quantile variant of the EM (QEM) algorithm. We prove that the proposed QEM method has an accuracy of $O(1/K^2)$ while the MCEM method has an accuracy of $O_p(1/\sqrt{K})$. Thus, the proposed QEM method possesses faster and more stable convergence properties when compared with the MCEM algorithm. The improved performance is illustrated through the numerical studies. Several practical examples illustrating its use in interval-censored data problems are also provided

Sets of Priors Reflecting Prior-Data Conflict and Agreement

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge. This has the advantage that prior-data conflict sensitivity can be modelled: Ranges of posterior inferences should be larger when prior and data are in conflict. We propose a new method for generating prior sets which, in addition to prior-data conflict sensitivity, allows to reflect strong prior-data agreement by decreased posterior imprecision.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, In: Paulo Joao Carvalho et al. (eds.), IPMU 2016: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, Eindhoven, The Netherland

Assessing the Potential of Classical Q-learning in General Game Playing

After the recent groundbreaking results of AlphaGo and AlphaZero, we have seen strong interests in deep reinforcement learning and artificial general intelligence (AGI) in game playing. However, deep learning is resource-intensive and the theory is not yet well developed. For small games, simple classical table-based Q-learning might still be the algorithm of choice. General Game Playing (GGP) provides a good testbed for reinforcement learning to research AGI. Q-learning is one of the canonical reinforcement learning methods, and has been used by (Banerjee $\&$ Stone, IJCAI 2007) in GGP. In this paper we implement Q-learning in GGP for three small-board games (Tic-Tac-Toe, Connect Four, Hex)\footnote{source code: https://github.com/wh1992v/ggp-rl}, to allow comparison to Banerjee et al.. We find that Q-learning converges to a high win rate in GGP. For the $\epsilon$-greedy strategy, we propose a first enhancement, the dynamic $\epsilon$ algorithm. In addition, inspired by (Gelly $\&$ Silver, ICML 2007) we combine online search (Monte Carlo Search) to enhance offline learning, and propose QM-learning for GGP. Both enhancements improve the performance of classical Q-learning. In this work, GGP allows us to show, if augmented by appropriate enhancements, that classical table-based Q-learning can perform well in small games.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1802.0594

Shear Modes, Criticality and Extremal Black Holes

We consider a (2+1)-dimensional field theory, assumed to be holographically dual to the extremal Reissner-Nordstrom AdS(4) black hole background, and calculate the retarded correlators of charge (vector) current and energy-momentum (tensor) operators at finite momentum and frequency. We show that, similar to what was observed previously for the correlators of scalar and spinor operators, these correlators exhibit emergent scaling behavior at low frequency. We numerically compute the electromagnetic and gravitational quasinormal frequencies (in the shear channel) of the extremal Reissner-Nordstrom AdS(4) black hole corresponding to the spectrum of poles in the retarded correlators. The picture that emerges is quite simple: there is a branch cut along the negative imaginary frequency axis, and a series of isolated poles corresponding to damped excitations. All of these poles are always in the lower half complex frequency plane, indicating stability. We show that this analytic structure can be understood as the proper limit of finite temperature results as T is taken to zero holding the chemical potential fixed.Comment: 28 pages, 7 figures, added reference

Antifungal Susceptibility Profiles of 1698 Yeast Reference Strains Revealing Potential Emerging Human Pathogens

New molecular identification techniques and the increased number of patients with various immune defects or underlying conditions lead to the emergence and/or the description of novel species of human and animal fungal opportunistic pathogens. Antifungal susceptibility provides important information for ecological, epidemiological and therapeutic issues. The aim of this study was to assess the potential risk of the various species based on their antifungal drug resistance, keeping in mind the methodological limitations. Antifungal susceptibility profiles to the five classes of antifungal drugs (polyens, azoles, echinocandins, allylamines and antimetabolites) were determined for 1698 yeast reference strains belonging to 992 species (634 Ascomycetes and 358 Basidiomycetes). Interestingly, geometric mean minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of all antifungal drugs tested were significantly higher for Basidiomycetes compared to Ascomycetes (p<0.001). Twenty four strains belonging to 23 species of which 19 were Basidiomycetes seem to be intrinsically “resistant” to all drugs. Comparison of the antifungal susceptibility profiles of the 4240 clinical isolates and the 315 reference strains belonging to 53 shared species showed similar results. Even in the absence of demonstrated in vitro/in vivo correlation, knowing the in vitro susceptibility to systemic antifungal agents and the putative intrinsic resistance of yeast species present in the environment is important because they could become opportunistic pathogens

The binaural masking level difference: cortical correlates persist despite severe brain stem atrophy in progressive supranuclear palsy.

Under binaural listening conditions, the detection of target signals within background masking noise is substantially improved when the interaural phase of the target differs from that of the masker. Neural correlates of this binaural masking level difference (BMLD) have been observed in the inferior colliculus and temporal cortex, but it is not known whether degeneration of the inferior colliculus would result in a reduction of the BMLD in humans. We used magnetoencephalography to examine the BMLD in 13 healthy adults and 13 patients with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP). PSP is associated with severe atrophy of the upper brain stem, including the inferior colliculus, confirmed by voxel-based morphometry of structural MRI. Stimuli comprised in-phase sinusoidal tones presented to both ears at three levels (high, medium, and low) masked by in-phase noise, which rendered the low-level tone inaudible. Critically, the BMLD was measured using a low-level tone presented in opposite phase across ears, making it audible against the noise. The cortical waveforms from bilateral auditory sources revealed significantly larger N1m peaks for the out-of-phase low-level tone compared with the in-phase low-level tone, for both groups, indicating preservation of early cortical correlates of the BMLD in PSP. In PSP a significant delay was observed in the onset of the N1m deflection and the amplitude of the P2m was reduced, but these differences were not restricted to the BMLD condition. The results demonstrate that although PSP causes subtle auditory deficits, binaural processing can survive the presence of significant damage to the upper brain stem.This work has been supported by the Wellcome Trust (Grants 088324 and 088263); Medical Research Council (G0700503 to B. C. P. Ghosh); Guarantors of Brain (to B. C. P. Ghosh); Raymond and Beverley Sackler Trust (to B. C. P. Ghosh); and National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre including the CambridgeBrain Bank.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from American Physiological Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/jn.00062.201

Structural and spectroscopic studies of a nanostructured silicon-perovskite interface.

While extensively investigated in thin film form for energy materials applications, this work investigates the formation of APbBr3 structures (A = CH3NH3+ (MA), Cs+) in silicon and oxidized silicon nanotubes (SiNTs) with varying inner diameter. We carefully control the extent of oxidation of the nanotube host and correlate the relative Si/Si oxide content in a given nanotube host with the photoluminescence quantum efficiency (PLQE) of the perovskite. Complementing these measurements is an evaluation of average PL lifetimes of a given APbBr3 nanostructure, as evaluated by time-resolved confocal photoluminescence measurements. Increasing Si (decreasing oxide) content in the nanotube host results in a sensitive reduction of MAPbBr3 PLQE, with a concomitant decrease in average lifetime (τave). We interpret these observations in terms of decreased defect passivation by a lower concentration of oxide species surrounding the perovskite. In addition, we show that the use of selected nanotube templates leads to more stable perovskite PL in air over time (weeks). Taken in concert, such fundamental observations have implications for interfacial carrier interactions in tandem Si/perovskite photovoltaics.This work was supported by the Robert A. Welch Foundation (Grant P-1212 to JLC). This project has also received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 756962). GD would like to acknowledge the Royal Society for funding through a Newton International Fellowship. K. F. acknowledges a George and Lilian Schiff Studentship, Winton Studentship, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) studentship, Cambridge Trust Scholarship, and Robert Gardiner Scholarship. R. L. Z. H. acknowledges funding from the Royal Academy of Engineering under the Research Fellowships scheme (no.: RF\201718\17101). The authors acknowledge the EPSRC (EP/R023980/1) for funding

On the flexibility of the design of Multiple Try Metropolis schemes

The Multiple Try Metropolis (MTM) method is a generalization of the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which the next state of the chain is chosen among a set of samples, according to normalized weights. In the literature, several extensions have been proposed. In this work, we show and remark upon the flexibility of the design of MTM-type methods, fulfilling the detailed balance condition. We discuss several possibilities and show different numerical results

Synthesizing and tuning chemical reaction networks with specified behaviours

We consider how to generate chemical reaction networks (CRNs) from functional specifications. We propose a two-stage approach that combines synthesis by satisfiability modulo theories and Markov chain Monte Carlo based optimisation. First, we identify candidate CRNs that have the possibility to produce correct computations for a given finite set of inputs. We then optimise the reaction rates of each CRN using a combination of stochastic search techniques applied to the chemical master equation, simultaneously improving the of correct behaviour and ruling out spurious solutions. In addition, we use techniques from continuous time Markov chain theory to study the expected termination time for each CRN. We illustrate our approach by identifying CRNs for majority decision-making and division computation, which includes the identification of both known and unknown networks.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, appeared the proceedings of the 21st conference on DNA Computing and Molecular Programming, 201

Mapping the inhomogeneous electrochemical reaction through porous LiFePO&lt;inf&gt;4&lt;/inf&gt;-electrodes in a standard coin cell battery

[Image - see article] Nanosized, carbon-coated LiFePO4 (LFP) is a promising cathode for Li-ion batteries. However, nano-particles are problematic for electrode design, optimized electrodes requiring high tap densities, good electronic wiring, and a low tortuosity for efficient Li diffusion in the electrolyte in between the solid particles, conditions that are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Using in situ energy-dispersive X-ray diffraction, we map the evolution of the inhomogeneous electrochemical reaction in LFP-electrodes. On the first cycle, the dynamics are limited by Li diffusion in the electrolyte at a cycle rate of C/7. On the second cycle, there appear to be two rate-limiting processes: Li diffusion in the electrolyte and electronic conductivity through the electrode. Three-dimensional modeling based on porous electrode theory shows that this change in dynamics can be reproduced by reducing the electronic conductivity of the composite electrode by a factor of 8 compared to the first cycle. The poorer electronic wiring could result from the expansion and contraction of the particles upon cycling and/or the formation of a solid-electrolyte interphase layer. A lag was also observed perpendicular to the direction of the current: the LFP particles at the edges of the cathode reacted preferentially to those in the middle, owing to the closer proximity to the electrolyte source. Simulations show that, at low charge rates, the reaction becomes more uniformly distributed across the electrode as the porosity or the width of the particle-size distribution is increased. However, at higher rates, the reaction becomes less uniform and independent of the particle-size distribution.We acknowledge the Engineering Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) for a Doctoral Training Account Award (for FCS) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) for support via the NECCES, an Energy Frontier Research Center (DE-SC0001294 and DE-SC0012583). FCS acknowledges the Science and Technology Facilities Council for travel funding through the Global Challenge Network in Batteries and Electrochemical Energy Devices. Synchrotron X-ray beamtime was provided by Diamond Light Source, under experiment number EE8385. We also thank Zlatko Saracevic at the Department of Chemical Engineering at the University of Cambridge for help with the BET experiments and Jon Rickard at the Department of Physics at the University of Cambridge for help with the SEM. Lastly; we thank Charles Monroe and Paul Shearing for discussions on this project.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from ACS Publications via http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/cm504317